The Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Bilateral Trade between Vietnam and the US: Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Matter?

The Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Bilateral Trade between Vietnam and the US: Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Matter?

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This study examines the relationship between the exchange rate and the Vietnam-US trade balance by employing a combination of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approaches with disaggregated data from 21 industries from 2008 to 2022.The findings reveal that, in both ARDL and NARDL models, a hp pavilion 15-eg1053cl real Vietnamese Dong (VND) depreciation does not significantly impact on the aggregated trade balance in the long-run.The results provide evidence of an asymmetric impact of the real exchange rate on the trade balance.These findings also suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic may have induced structural breaks in the relationship between exchange rates and trade balances, leading to increased sensitivity of trade balances cartoon martian with big head to exchange rate movements.